Quote — Norm Franz on Gold, Silver and Debt

Norm Franz takes some quality time out to pose for a photo

Norm Franz — Author and great quo­ta­tion com­pos­er

Gold is the mon­ey of kings, sil­ver is the mon­ey of gen­tle­men, barter is the mon­ey of peas­ants — but debt is the mon­ey of slaves ”

  • Norm Franz (Author, 2001)

Norm Franz is an author and con­cerned about mon­ey. He is also con­cerned about reli­gion and scrip­tures which are not so applic­a­ble to me. But what I can say is that this quote is bang on! It is a mas­ter­ful quote. It is lift­ed from his book Mon­ey and Wealth in the New Mil­len­ni­um (2001).

A much sim­pler ver­sion of the phrase exist­ed for hun­dreds (if not thou­sands) of years before in the form of “Gold is the mon­ey of Kings”.

By buy­ing Gold you can start to get out of our debt based mon­e­tary system…Before it collapses…Which it only a mat­ter of time now…

I think that says it all.

More Gold­en Mon­ey Quotes

© Copy­right MMXIII RagingGoldenBull.com

The Gold Silver Ratio Explained

what is the Gold Silver Ratio, what does it mean, and why is it useful?

The gold sil­ver ratio explained

Today we are going to return to one of the old chest­nuts of the pre­cious
met­al invest­ing world and explain the rela­tion­ship between the two key
met­als gold and sil­ver. Specif­i­cal­ly we will give the answer to the
ques­tion of what is the Gold Sil­ver Ratio mean­ing?

As well you know, gold and sil­ver have been used for the last five
thou­sand years odd as “real mon­ey” and they have always had a tight
rela­tion­ship. Today in our mod­ern world the cen­tral plan­ers have weaned us
onto a paper worth­less cur­ren­cy (aka fake, or more tech­ni­cal­ly fiat
cur­ren­cy
), while they (I guar­an­tee you) are buy­ing and stor­ing up all the
gold and sil­ver they can find with both arms, and feet.

This rela­tion­ship is based on their scarci­ty and how much of it was com­ing
out of the ground — Obvi­ous­ly if one is much more com­mon (Sil­ver) than
the oth­er (Gold), then it is going to be worth less.

Through­out his­to­ry this rela­tion­ship (ratio) has remained fair­ly con­stant
at some­where between twelve to one, and six­teen to one.

So in oth­er words you would need twelve ounces of sil­ver to buy one ounce
of gold. Or Gold was twelve times more valu­able than sil­ver. Some­times you
would need six­teen ounces of Sil­ver to buy one ounce of Gold.

The Gold Silver Ratio Calculation Method

The ration between gold and Silver allows us to better understand market sentiment - and where it may be out of line

Gold Sil­ver Ratio Cal­cu­la­tion

So what is the Gold Sil­ver Ratio today? Well for that we sim­ply do the
sim­ple Gold Sil­ver Ratio Cal­cu­la­tion — Divide the cur­rent USD price of
Gold, into the cur­rent USD price for sil­ver. This gives us 1,350 divid­ed
by 22.6 which gives us a ratio of 59.7. So let’s call it 60! This is today
as of this writ­ing — This will change dras­ti­cal­ly in the future and I
invite you to revis­it this page five years from now!

This means that today we would need 60 ounces of Sil­ver to buy one sin­gle
ounce of Gold. That means the ratio is very high, and at some point it
will revert back to the his­tor­i­cal mean (as me men­tioned above, some­where
between twelve and six­teen).

See this ten year Gold Sil­ver ratio his­tor­i­cal chart here:

RagingGoldenBull.com_Gold-Silver-Ratio-10-Year-Chart

Start allo­cat­ing some of your invest­ing mon­ey today in some Sil­ver to
com­pli­ment your Gold in your per­son­al Pre­cious Met­als hold­ings — would be a
very smart thing to do. So don’t delay! Start to action that task today!

© Copy­right MMXIII RagingGoldenBull.com

Video — “Inflation — The Secret Killer”

Here is a short intro­duc­tion to infla­tion that I pro­duced because most peo­ple are total­ly unaware or just not aware of what infla­tion is and how it is actu­al­ly caused — Enjoy:

By the way, this is dif­fer­ent con­tent from the blog entry — It just start­ed going in a dif­fer­ent direc­tion!

As usu­al we wel­come your feed­back.
P.S.
For your fur­ther view­ing plea­sure check­out these oth­er engag­ing videos.

© Copy­right MMXIII RagingGoldenBull.com

Inflation — The Most Unjust of Taxes

The Romans were masters of debasing currency, or coinage as it was back then

Clipped Roman Sil­ver coins — Debase­ment alive and well long, long ago

Most peo­ple, myself includ­ed, have been sly­ly brought up to nev­er think about infla­tion as a form of direct gov­ern­ment tax­a­tion. But that is exact­ly what it is. Make no mis­take about that.

You see long ago (in days of olde, when Knights were bold), it became clear that once you start tax­ing peo­ple above the for­ties rate, at about 45% and above peo­ple start to squeal. The Kings, mon­archs, princes, and Dukes need­ed rev­enues to fund their mani­ac wars. It became clear that you just can’t keep notch­ing up the rate of tax­a­tion — much to the both­er­a­tion of the rul­ing class­es, as they would just revolt — and that was pret­ty bor­ing sit­u­a­tion to deal with.

I did­n’t take long for them to realise that all they had to do what debase the cur­ren­cy. A tech­ni­cal term for remov­ing some of the mon­ey from the mon­ey itself. Tech­ni­cal­ly it’s called steal­ing. If you tried this they would throw you in jail.

Back in the day a wedge would be cut out of the coins that were actu­al­ly made of gold, sil­ver and mix­es there­of. If the lord of the manor need­ed more mon­ey he would just legal­ly” debase the coin (cur­ren­cy of the day).

Back then it was bleed­in’ obvi­ous that some­one had hacked a chunk out of the gold coin. The more sly rulers would actu­al­ly replace the met­als with oth­ers.

Today, how­ev­er the con­trol lords have reached the ulti­mate form of debase­ment Nir­vana. This is why it can­not last. We are all total­ly blind to the debase­ment. There are two ways that are over­lords man­age this debase­ment:

  • Mon­ey Print­ing (so-called Quan­ti­ta­tive Eas­ing)
  • Frac­tion­al Reserve Bank­ing

so to con­clude — Infla­tion is used and manip­u­lat­ed by Gov­ern­ment to it’s own ends for at least half a mil­len­ni­um and that is a hard drug to give up.

We no longer have a sound eco­nom­ic finan­cial sys­tem — It has long been replaced by a dys­func­tion­al Ponzi Scheme.

Make ready your plans.

© Copy­right MMXIII RagingGoldenBull.com

Video — “Stop Thief!” — I am Being Robbed Blind!

Just made a Screen­cast of yes­ter­days Post called “Stop Thief! I’m being Robbed Blind!” — check-it out here:

 

Enjoy! As usu­al let’s us know what you think and give us your feed­back.

P.S.
This video is also post­ed on http://www.youtube.com/RagingGoldenBull

© Copy­right MMXIII RagingGoldenBull.com

Stop Thief!” — I am Being Robbed Blind!

We are surrounded by the Thievery Coporation - arm yourself with knowledge, a plan and take action now!

The Mas­ter Thief — But just who is it?

Most of humankind are being fleeced every­day and for the most part they are not even aware of it. Let me elab­o­rate if I may. In fact this has gone on for so long (longer than any­one alive can remem­ber), and so con­sis­tent­ly that peo­ple now think that this is nor­mal. How­ev­er, I am here to tell you — this is any­thing but.

Ques­tion: What was the price of an ounce of Gold in USD on May 1st 1933?

Answer: 20.67 USD/Ounce

Ok, so anoth­er ques­tion — just to make the point.

Ques­tion: What was the price of an ounce of Gold in USD on May 1st 2013?

Answer: 1,400 USD/Ounce (approx.)

So what’s the deal here?

The point is eas­i­er to under­stand if we invert the num­bers and take the rec­i­p­ro­cal (i.e.divide 1/[gold-price]). Refer to the fol­low­ing table:

Gold Price-Change Overview (1933 – 2013)

Gold Price-Change Overview (1933 – 2013)

Now it’s a bit clear­er to see what is going on. In 1933 one US Dol­lar would buy you 1/20th on an ounce of pure gold.

But if you try that today, you are only going to get 1/1400 on ounce of Gold.

Struth, I have been robbed! And you have been unless you took the time to buy a lit­tle Gold and/or Sil­ver.

Back in 1933 the US Dol­lar was real­ly pret­ty valu­able (com­pared to today at least!).

So just how do you think this grand theft took place? Have a pon­der and I will cov­er more next time. Till then, “Keep Stackin’ ” …

© Copy­right MMXIII RagingGoldenBull.com

Take Action — NOW!

This may be your last chance to get in on the Gold mar­ket. The prices are
com­ing down, and although they could drop as low as 1,000 USD/Oz it is most
unlike­ly.

Check out the one year chart here:

Gold gets hammered

Gold Char 1 year to date

If you are already in it could be seen as depress­ing — but on the oth­er
hand it is a great oppor­tu­ni­ty to stock up. So don’t delay, Buy Today!
Here we see Gold at almost a 30% dis­count from it’s peak. When it comes
back it will blast through the 1,800 bar­ri­er of old.

This is a long term game. This is not trad­ing, or a quick buck. This is
preser­va­tion of wealth and build­ing a future. You should be think­ing five
to ten years into the future from here.

What will you be doing and how well will you be liv­ing in 2018?

Think about that for a while and then “Take Action!”.

© Copy­right MMXIII RagingGoldenBull.com

Interesting Times …

The Chi­nese have an ancient curse which states:

May You Live in Inter­est­ing Times”

Well guess what? That’s exact­ly what you are doing right now, but maybe
you just haven’t noticed it. Or maybe you just accept it now as nor­mal.

Let me explain. We are liv­ing in the most unusu­al (read inter­est­ing) set
of finan­cial cir­cum­stances that this world have ever seen.

Maybe you have been so exposed to it and so famil­iar with it that you now
accept it as nor­mal. We no longer have a sound finan­cial sys­tem. It has
been replaced with the biggest Ponzi Scheme of all time. What is
con­sid­ered nor­mal or accept­able has shift­ed, slow­ly but sure­ly with the
pas­sage of time.

Cen­tral Bankers are to be blamed for all of these woes (ok TBTF banks
too). But con­tin­u­al­ly manip­u­lat­ing the sup­ply of mon­ey in their respec­tive
sys­tems, they have dilut­ed all our pre­cious mon­ey. so much so, that we are
near­ing the point of col­lapse, where it is just not cred­i­ble any­more.

Take some pre­cau­tions and make sure that you have at least 5 per­cent of
your net worth in some form of mate­r­i­al asset: Gold, Sil­ver, farm­land,
land, or some­thing. Of all Gold is prob­a­bly the eas­i­est to han­dle. That’s
why we rec­om­mend gold. It’s REAL MONEY!

So to recap. Don’t loose the faith and keep stackin’ …

© Copy­right MMXIII RagingGoldenBull.com

Video — The Creature from Jekyll Island (G. Edward Griffin)

This is a must watch video. If you real­ly want to know how we got here, in the finan­cial mess that we are in today, then you need to watch this video and under­stand exact­ly how we got here.

The Fed­er­al Reserve Sys­tem is the great­est scam of all his­to­ry — Because it is NOT:

  • Fed­er­al
  • a Reserve (there are no Finan­cial Reserves)
  • a Sys­tem (it is New York based — with the illu­sion of Nation­al pres­ence)

Mr Grif­fin sites sev­en rea­sons why the Fed­er­al Reserve Sys­tem shoul be abol­ished:

  • It is inca­pable of acheiv­ing it’s stat­ed objec­tives
  • It is a Car­tel — Oper­at­ing against the pub­lic inter­est
  • It is the Supreme instru­ment of Usery
  • It gen­er­ates our most unfair tax
  • It encour­ages war
  • It desta­bilis­es the econ­o­my
  • It is an instru­ment of Total­i­te­ri­an­ism

It’s long weigh­ing in at 105 min­utes — but Mr Grif­fin is a mas­ter pub­lic speak­er, a dili­gent researcher, and above all it is high­ly enter­tain­ing piece that every­one should hear.

And know this — You can watch/listen to this video much quick­er than it took Mr Grif­fin the years of painstak­ing research, or ever to read his weighty tome as the same (which is a MUST read, btw ;-)).

Split it into two parts if you must, or more, but make sure you under­stand all that is in this great, great lec­ture.

A clos­ing thougt from Mr Grif­fin:

Fed­er­al Reserve Sys­tem does not need to be audit­ed…  It needs to be abol­ished!

 

I hear you Mr Grif­fin!

Keep stackin’ — FPOW Far­leyB

© Copy­right MMXIII RagingGoldenBull.com

John Embry on Gold and Silver

Here is a recent inter­view with John Embry for the Hera Research Newlet­ter (HRN):

HRN: Thank you for join­ing us today. Let’s talk about gold stocks.

John Embry: Gold stocks rep­re­sent a tremen­dous val­ue in rela­tion to the price of gold and to the fun­da­men­tals of the sec­tor. There has been tremen­dous short­ing activ­i­ty by hedge funds and, as a result, ded­i­cat­ed gold funds have expe­ri­enced redemp­tions. Retail investors, who are nat­ur­al buy­ers of these stocks, have been anni­hi­lat­ed by the price action. This has cre­at­ed one of the finest oppor­tu­ni­ties, if not the finest oppor­tu­ni­ty, that I have ever seen.

HRN: Do you have a short term price tar­get?

John Embry: I don’t look at short term price charts for gold. In a mar­ket as heav­i­ly inter­fered with as this one, charts can be made to look any way you want in the short run. As I see it, if you don’t like gold at these prices, then you must like cur­ren­cies. My part­ner Eric Sprott often says, the U.S. dol­lar is the best look­ing horse in the glue fac­to­ry. If the U.S. dol­lar is the world’s strongest cur­ren­cy, that’s the best endorse­ment for gold that I can think of.

HRN: Do you believe that cur­ren­cies are los­ing val­ue?

John Embry: The fact is that economies are slow­ly melt­ing down. The prob­lem is exces­sive debt in almost every cor­ner of the world. The only way to deal with the debt is through aggres­sive growth, but fab­ri­cat­ing growth through more debt won’t work. The idea that you can get the econ­o­my to move for­ward by cre­at­ing even more debt just does­n’t wash. We can’t ser­vice the exist­ing debt, even at arti­fi­cial­ly low inter­est rates. I don’t see any easy way out. We have to get the exces­sive debt out of the finan­cial sys­tem. Either pol­i­cy mak­ers are going to cre­ate mount­ing infla­tion or there will be a defla­tion­ary debt col­lapse.

HRN: Europe seems to be a case in point. Do you think the Euro will break up?

John Embry: The Euro­crats who con­struct­ed the cur­ren­cy aren’t going to give it up eas­i­ly. The key is how much the Ger­mans are going to go along with. They real­ize that there’s a huge loss for them if the Euro falls apart. I would­n’t want to be in Ger­man Chan­cel­lor Angela Merkel’s shoes. Ger­many is trapped in the Euro because it relies on exports and Ger­man banks hold the debt of oth­er Euro­pean coun­tries. Despite the bailouts and the infla­tion­ary poli­cies of the Euro­pean Cen­tral Bank (ECB), Ger­many does­n’t have much choice.

HRN: How can Euro­pean gov­ern­ments solve their debt prob­lems?

John Embry: The prob­lem is that it would take a hor­rif­ic debt col­lapse to set the stage for future expan­sion. There is no politi­cian on earth that wants that to hap­pen on their watch. Con­se­quent­ly, pol­i­cy mak­ers will resist defla­tion and we’re going down the oppo­site road, which means mount­ing infla­tion or pos­si­bly hyper­in­fla­tion. I don’t think politi­cians will change the sys­tem. I think the sys­tem will change the politi­cians.

HRN: Can the econ­o­my recov­er in a high infla­tion sce­nario?

John Embry: Cre­at­ing even more debt is not going to work. To me, high infla­tion is the most cor­ro­sive thing that can hap­pen to an econ­o­my or to a coun­try. I’m real­ly wor­ried that neo­clas­si­cal, Key­ne­sian econ­o­mists like Paul Krug­man, who are pre­scrib­ing even more debt, will bring about a col­lapse.

HRN: Are these prob­lems the result of Key­ne­sian eco­nom­ics?

John Embry: If you real­ly applied Key­ne­sian­ism as Keynes orig­i­nal­ly envi­sioned it, the gov­ern­ment was sup­posed to run sur­plus­es when the econ­o­my was grow­ing to pay for the deficits that would be cre­at­ed dur­ing down­turns. That’s been con­ve­nient­ly for­got­ten. We’ve had an astound­ing build up of debt. I don’t think peo­ple ful­ly real­ize how seri­ous this is. I’m amazed at how com­pla­cent peo­ple are. We’ve nev­er been in a posi­tion like this in the entire his­to­ry of the world.

HRN: Why do you think peo­ple are so com­pla­cent?

John Embry: I think it’s cog­ni­tive dis­so­nance. When con­front­ed with some­thing that’s real­ly unpleas­ant, and to which there’s no easy solu­tion, the aver­age per­son will basi­cal­ly block it out and look for some­body to tell them that every­thing is fine. The main­stream news media and the gov­ern­ment are doing that as we speak. Con­se­quent­ly, the aver­age per­son does­n’t have a chance of under­stand­ing what’s going on. The man in the street does­n’t have a clue what’s com­ing.

HRN: What about invest­ment pro­fes­sion­als?

John Embry: I have a lot of close friends who have been in the invest­ment busi­ness for 40 years and they don’t want to hear it.

HRN: Won’t the Fed­er­al Reserve and oth­er cen­tral banks sim­ply bail out the sys­tem?

John Embry: They think that print­ing mon­ey will buoy the mar­kets and that that’s good, but it won’t solve any of the prob­lems. Although you may get a momen­tary lift in the finan­cial mar­kets, when it plays itself out we’ll be back in the same sit­u­a­tion, but with mon­ey that’s being sys­tem­at­i­cal­ly destroyed.

HRN: Does print­ing mon­ey work in the short term?

John Embry: There are nom­i­nal prices and real prices. Print­ing mon­ey is very decep­tive and peo­ple are con­fused by its effects. I am only inter­est­ed in real returns, not nom­i­nal returns. If you have a nom­i­nal return that’s caused by infla­tion, you’re los­ing mon­ey because gov­ern­ments tax nom­i­nal gains.

HRN: Can gov­ern­ments inflate their way out of debt?

John Embry: The U.S. fed­er­al gov­ern­ment, for exam­ple, has reached a stage where forty cents of every dol­lar spent at the fed­er­al lev­el is bor­rowed and a lot of that mon­ey has been print­ed. There has nev­er been a case in his­to­ry where that has­n’t led to finan­cial dis­as­ter. If you study any empir­i­cal evi­dence, they’re in a hope­less posi­tion. They’ve only been able to get away with it so far because the U.S. dol­lar is the world reserve cur­ren­cy. If the Unit­ed States was­n’t able to print mon­ey and was trapped in the Euro­pean Union, it would just be a mas­sive Spain.

HRN: So, gov­ern­ments can’t inflate away their debt?

John Embry: Infla­tion is the eas­i­er, more expe­di­ent route to take, but I would not rule out an acci­dent. For exam­ple, if pol­i­cy mak­ers push aus­ter­i­ty too far they could trig­ger a defla­tion­ary spi­ral that would be impos­si­ble to reverse. I sub­scribe to the Aus­tri­an the­o­ry of eco­nom­ics. In his book Human Action, Lud­wig von Mis­es wrote that there is no way to avoid the col­lapse of a cred­it boom and that more cred­it expan­sion sim­ply destroys the cur­ren­cy.

HRN: Don’t infla­tion­ary poli­cies help banks and sup­port the finan­cial sys­tem?

John Embry: The ECB could do anoth­er Long-Term Refi­nanc­ing Oper­a­tion (LTRO) or the Fed­er­al Reserve could buy more U.S. Trea­suries in the open mar­ket but that’s not real­ly solv­ing the prob­lem. If you actu­al­ly eval­u­at­ed the bank­ing sys­tem and marked all the assets to mar­ket, the sys­tem would be insol­vent.

HRN: And the basic prob­lem is too much debt and lever­age?

John Embry: The over the counter (OTC) deriv­a­tives sit­u­a­tion is so sur­re­al I can’t begin to express it. Cor­rect­ly cal­cu­lat­ed, the notion­al val­ue of all OTC deriv­a­tives is in excess of one quadrillion dol­lars glob­al­ly. The vast major­i­ty are relat­ed to inter­est rates. Cen­tral banks have to keep cre­at­ing liq­uid­i­ty to pre­vent these instru­ments from col­laps­ing.

HRN: What can the Fed­er­al Reserve and oth­er cen­tral banks do?

John Embry: They’re lost either way. They’re run­ning a mas­sive lab exper­i­ment with mon­e­tary pol­i­cy and don’t have a clue what the out­come is going to be.

HRN: Do you think the U.S. econ­o­my can grow its way out of debt?

John Embry: When I was a kid back in the 1950’s, most women did­n’t work. Amer­i­cans main­tained their stan­dard of liv­ing by putting a sec­ond per­son to work. When that was expend­ed they made up the dif­fer­ence by going into debt and, even­tu­al­ly, they used their homes as cash machines. Now stu­dent loans total more than $1 tril­lion. I just don’t see where the con­sumer demand is going to come from going for­ward. You can’t get blood out of a stone.

HRN: What do you think the out­come is going be?

John Embry: I believe that before this is over we’ll have a new cur­ren­cy sys­tem, prob­a­bly backed by gold.

HRN: Do you sup­port the gold stan­dard?

John Embry: One of the great­est peri­ods of wealth cre­ation was when we had a gold stan­dard in the sec­ond half of the 19th cen­tu­ry. It’s hard to believe that it’s going to be 41 years since there has been gold back­ing for any of the major cur­ren­cies in the world. That is what has allowed the mas­sive build up of debt that we have today. If there had been a gold stan­dard, we would­n’t be in the posi­tion we are in. West­ern gov­ern­ments don’t want the gold stan­dard because it restricts their abil­i­ty to dole out favors.

HRN: But the gold stan­dard does­n’t pre­vent finan­cial pan­ics.

John Embry: There are always going to be finan­cial pan­ics, but, under the gold stan­dard they tend to be short term. If we had had a gold stan­dard, there would have been a num­ber of cleans­ing peri­ods where excess debt was elim­i­nat­ed. The Fed­er­al Reserve allowed the build up of debt that led to the stock mar­ket bub­ble and crash of 1929 and to the Great Depres­sion, which was fol­lowed by World War II. It took about a decade to build up the debt and more than a decade to deal with the fall­out. It’s tak­en more than 40 years to build up the debt we have today and I don’t know how long it’s going to take to cor­rect it.

HRN: What does this mean for the aver­age per­son?

John Embry: I think liv­ing stan­dards of most peo­ple in the world, par­tic­u­lar­ly in the West are going to decline pre­cip­i­tous­ly. The Fed­er­al Reserve recent­ly report­ed that the net worth of the medi­an Amer­i­can fam­i­ly has fall­en near­ly 40% since 2007 after adjust­ing for infla­tion. Before this all plays out, I think the per­cent­ages are going to be far larg­er.

HRN: Do you fore­see any wider impact on soci­ety?

John Embry: When I was grow­ing up in the Unit­ed States after World War II, I did­n’t real­ize how remark­ably for­tu­nate we were as a soci­ety to have such a strong mid­dle class. Sel­dom in his­to­ry has there been a mid­dle class to equal what tran­spired in the U.S. and Cana­da from the 1950s to the 1980s. We basi­cal­ly took it for grant­ed because that’s all we ever knew. The mid­dle class in the Unit­ed States is dis­ap­pear­ing. What hap­pens is that you have mas­sive pover­ty and a small wealthy class. It’s one of the worst things that can hap­pen to a soci­ety and it can lead to civ­il unrest. If there’s no rea­son to buy into the sys­tem, peo­ple will act up.

HRN: Do you view gold and sil­ver as com­modi­ties?

John Embry: I view gold and sil­ver as mon­e­tary met­als. The main­stream news media con­flates gold and sil­ver with indus­tri­al com­modi­ties, but they’re real­ly a com­peti­tor to the cur­ren­cy sys­tem. Gold is the antithe­sis of paper mon­ey.

HRN: I’ve read that cen­tral banks are buy­ing gold.

John Embry: Con­fi­dence in cur­ren­cies is mis­placed. There is a strong flow of gold from West to East. The Chi­nese, Indi­ans, Rus­sians and Viet­namese know per­fect­ly well what’s going on with the U.S. dol­lar and the Euro. They are buy­ing phys­i­cal gold and the West has been stu­pid enough to sell it to them.

HRN: What’s your view on Chi­na?

John Embry: I’m not opti­mistic on Chi­na in the short run. The Peo­ple’s Bank of Chi­na (PBoC) recent­ly cut bank reserve require­ments by 150 basis points to stim­u­late 1.2 tril­lion yuan ($190 bil­lion) of new lend­ing because they don’t want growth to fall from around 8% to 7%. As I see it, they’ve dined out on West­ern profli­ga­cy for 20 years and have become the most unbal­anced econ­o­my in the world. An inor­di­nate amount of Chi­na’s eco­nom­ic activ­i­ty is gen­er­at­ed by exports and by all man­ner of cap­i­tal spend­ing on man­u­fac­tur­ing, real estate, infra­struc­ture and more. The slow­down in the world econ­o­my has revealed mas­sive over­ca­pac­i­ty in many sec­tors.

HRN: Can Chi­na devel­op a con­sumer-dri­ven econ­o­my?

John Embry: The idea that Chi­na’s econ­o­my can morph into a con­sumer-dri­ven econ­o­my is pre­pos­ter­ous. The very same con­sumers are employed in sec­tors like man­u­fac­tur­ing where there is mas­sive over­ca­pac­i­ty. If the world slides into anoth­er glob­al reces­sion, which is not beyond the realm of pos­si­bil­i­ty, I don’t see how Chi­na stays out of it and if they don’t then there’s no engine of growth left in the world.

HRN: So, even with a ris­ing mid­dle class, Chi­na remains depen­dent on exports?

John Embry: The fact is that Chi­na has become the world’s man­u­fac­tur­er but the abil­i­ty of their two largest cus­tomers, Europe and the Unit­ed States, to con­sume is being con­strained. Chi­na is not going to be able to keep sell­ing more year over year. The HSBC man­u­fac­tur­ing index has fall­en to reces­sion­ary lev­els.

HRN: It has been pre­dict­ed that Chi­na will become the world’s largest econ­o­my. Do you think that’s true?

John Embry: I think Chi­na will prob­a­bly dom­i­nate the 21st cen­tu­ry. The U.S. dom­i­nat­ed the 20th cen­tu­ry but it went through some very tough times in the first half of the cen­tu­ry.

HRN: With a slow­down in Chi­na, what’s your view on com­modi­ties like cop­per or crude oil?

John Embry: In the short term, I’m wor­ried about com­modi­ties. In a deep glob­al reces­sion, I expect there will be extreme mon­e­tary debase­ment, which will hold up the nom­i­nal prices of com­modi­ties more than sup­ply and demand fac­tors would sug­gest.

HRN: Do you fore­see a bear mar­ket in com­modi­ties?

John Embry: We are in a short-term bear mar­ket that will be arrest­ed by mon­e­tary debase­ment.

HRN: But there are val­ue buy­ing oppor­tu­ni­ties?

John Embry: Giv­en my views on cur­ren­cies, com­modi­ties that are already depressed could be decent repos­i­to­ries for wealth. I like agri­cul­tur­al prod­ucts. As the glob­al econ­o­my con­tin­ues to devel­op, I think the sup­ply of food is going to be a major issue.

HRN: How can investors pro­tect their assets in a glob­al reces­sion?

John Embry: The only things I’m com­fort­able hold­ing are pre­cious met­als and, because they are so cheap now, pre­cious met­als min­ing shares.

HRN: Where do you think the price of gold will end up?

John Embry: I’m more con­cerned with how many ounces I own than with how many U.S. dol­lars I can get for them at any giv­en point in time. Gold and paper mon­ey are going in oppo­site direc­tions.

HRN: Thank you for your valu­able time.

John Embry: It was my plea­sure.

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