Category Archives: news

The Most Over/Under-Valued Housing Markets In The World

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This is very interesting (and serious):

OECD compare the prices

OECD compare the prices

House prices – with respect to both levels and changes – differ widely across OECD countries. As a simple measure of relative rich or cheapness, the OECD calculates if the price-to-rent ratio (a measure of the profitability of owning a house) and the price-to-income ratio (a measure of affordability) are above their long-term averages, house prices are said to be overvalued, and vice-versa. There are clearly some nations that are extremely over-valued and others that are cheap but as SocGen’s Albert Edwards notes, it is the UK that stands out as authorities have gone out of their way to prop up house prices – still extremely over-valued (20-30%) – despite being at the epicenter of the global credit bust. Summing up the central bankers anthem, Edwards exclaims: “what makes me genuinely really angry is that burdening our children with more debt to buy ridiculously expensive houses is seen as a solution to the problem of excessively expensive housing.”

Screwed (ie SELL!):

  • UK
  • Spain

Not-Screwed (ie BUY!):

  • Portugal
  • Switzerland

So quite simply sell any properties that you have in the screwed group and buy them back in the not-screwed group. Voila! These countries break down into Five Categories:

Where houses appear broadly correctly valued. This category includes the Unites States, where prices have started rising again after a substantial correction; Italy, where prices are falling rapidly; Austria, where prices are rising; and Iceland, Korea and Luxembourg where prices are roughly flat.

Where houses appear undervalued and prices are still falling. This category includes European countries hit hard by the crisis – Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Slovenia, Slovakia and the Czech Republic – but also Japan.

Where houses appear undervalued but prices are rising. This category includes only Germany and Switzerland, two European countries where strong growth in household disposable income and favourable financing conditions have boosted prices (despite macro-prudential measures in Switzerland).

Where houses appear overvalued but prices are falling. This category is the largest as it includes many European countries where the post-crisis housing market correction is still ongoing, most notably Spain, but also the United Kingdom, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, the Netherlands and one non-European country, Australia. While price corrections in these countries are necessary, they are also concerning as they weaken households’ financial health and potentially fragilize banking sectors.

Where houses appear overvalued but prices are still rising. This is the case in Canada, Norway, New Zealand and, to a lesser extent, Sweden. Economies in this category are most vulnerable to the risk of a price correction – especially if borrowing costs were to rise or income growth were to slow.

Get the full scoop:

The Most Over/Under-Valued Housing Markets In The World

Happy House Hunting …

© Copyright MMXIII RagingGoldenBull.com

IMF “to admit mistakes” in handling Greek debt crisis and bailout – My response…

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Here is a short piece that I felt I had to interject at The Guardian (UK)

RagingGoldenBul unleashes on The Guardian (UK) about the IMF (International Mafia Federation)

RagingGoldenBul unleashes on The Guardian (UK) about the IMF (International Mafia Federation)

😉

RagingGoldenBul – 05 June 2013 6:54pm

Recommend: 77

Let us not ponce about the proverbial bush here my brethren:

The IMF (short for: International Mafia Federation) is nothing more than another phony instrument created by the US government, for the US government, along with World Bank at that infamous Bretton Woods (1944) meeting where they strong armed the rest of the world over 21 long, grueling, and I would put it to you arduous days (blood must have been pouring from the poor delegates ears after day 12) while the world was still at WAR. Picture it.

Oh how they seized their chance, dragged in John Maynard Keynes (UK in collusion – special relationship you know), and invented a crock, because no one had any choice. No Choice.

It is well known that M. Lagarde (after they ditched DSK) let the cat out of the “bail-in” bag way too early for the FedReserve, and the ECB, and thus both the Bernanke and the Draghi are now sour-pusses. After those trillions of USDs that helicopter Ben printed-up, M. Lagarde blew it in one momentary lapse of reason. Now Ben will bail-out himself of the picture at end of the current term as Governor of the Fed.

Everyone knows that “Bail-ins” are coming now to a Bank near you real soon….Are you ready for that?

Why does anyone listen to a word these guys (International Mafia Federation) say anymore? Why do they point to them as if they are credible?

It all leads back to one thing – US Dollar hegemony, and anything to keep that puppy alive – alas brethren, the end is nigh.

Please excuse my rather fruity and colorful language (sausage I hate US English 😉 )…

Original Article:

The International Monetary Fund is to admit that it has made serious mistakes in the handling of the sovereign debt crisis in Greece, according to internal reports due to be published later on Wednesday.

Documents presented to the Fund’s board last Friday will reveal that the Washington-based organisation underestimated the damage austerity would cause to the eurozone country, which has required two bailouts in the past three years.

The Wall Street Journal reported that the papers would say that financial support from the Fund, the European Central Bank and the European Commission had bought time for Greece but had only been made possible because the IMF had bent its own rules to make the country’s debt look more sustainable than it was. According to the WSJ report, Greece failed to meet three of the Fund’s four tests to qualify for help.

A Fund spokeswoman said: “We will be publishing a number of papers on Greece later today. The board met last Friday to discuss several documents on Greece including the review of its programme and its annual economic assessment.”

Greece became the first eurozone nation to require a bailout by the international community in 2010, but needed a second round of financial assistance in early 2012 when a deep recession and high interest payments threatened to send its debts spiralling out of control.

The so-called troika of the IMF, ECB and EC forced private sector bondholders to write down the value of their Greek bonds in an attempt to bring the country’s debts down to sustainable levels of 120% of national income by 2020.

Christine Lagarde, the managing director of the Fund, has said many times over the past year that Greece should now be in a position to pay off its debts, but the WSJ reports that IMF staff believe this cannot be said with any certainty.

In Athens, officials reacted with barely disguised glee to the news.

The report confirms what Greek officials have long said: that the first bailout of uncompromising budget cuts and tax increases, the price of 110 bn euro in emergency funds in May 2010, was the wrong prescription for a country not only batting a monumental debt load but rampant tax evasion and a flourishing black economy.

Under the weight of such measures – applied across the board and hitting the poorest hardest – the economy, they said, was always bound to dive into an economic death spiral. “For too long they [troika officials] refused to accept that the programme was simply off-target by hiding behind our failure to implement structural reforms,” said one insider. “Now that reforms are being applied they’ve had to accept the bitter truth.”

The Greek media recently quoted IMF managing director Christine Lagarde describing 2011 as a “lost year” partly because of miscalculations by the EU and IMF. The authoritative Kathimerini newspaper said the report identified a number of “mistakes” including the failure of creditors to agree to a restructuring of Greece’s debt burden earlier – a failure that had had a disastrous effect on its macro-economic assumptions.

“From what we understand the IMF singles out the EU for criticism in its handling of the problem more than anything else,” said one well-placed official at the Greek finance ministry. “But acknowledgement of these mistakes will help us. It has already helped cut some slack and it will help us get what we really need which is a haircut on our debt next year.

See the full story: http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/jun/05/imf-admit-mistakes-greek-crisis-austerity#comment-24097893

© Copyright MMXIII RagingGoldenBull.com

UBS to Pay Over $450 Million to Settle Libor Probe

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UBS are getting hammered (as they should be):

“ZURICH–UBS AG (UBS) is close to a settlement with U.S. and U.K. authorities and is expected pay more than $450 million over claims that some of its employees reported false Libor rates to boost the bank’s profit, the New York Times reported Sunday, citing anonymous officials briefed on the matter.

If the Zurich-based bank agrees to the deals with various authorities, the collective penalties would yield the largest total fine to date related to the rate-rigging inquiry and would increase the likelihood that other financial institutions would face stiff penalties, it reported.

UBS wasn’t immediately available to comment on the report.

Authorities dealt their first blow in the rate-rigging case in June, when U.K. bank Barclays Plc (BARC.LN) agreed to a $450 million settlement.

U.S. officials are hoping to complete a deal with UBS by the middle of the month, according to officials briefed on the matter, the paper reported.”

see the full story:

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/ubs-to-pay-over-450-million-to-settle-libor-probe-20121203-00132

 
© Copyright MMXII RagingGoldenBull.com

Mark Carney Announced as next Governor of the Bank of England

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A shock and surprise announcement from George Osbourne today as he announced the Canadian Mark Carney as the next Governor of the Bank of England. Do not doubt that this is one of the top jobs in the UK.

Mr. Mark Carney will be next Governor of the Bank of England

George Osbourne defended his decision by stating that Mr. Carney was:

“The outstanding Central Banker of his generation.”

He also said that he was the best man for the job in the whole world bar none. I think it speaks more for how unsuitable the home grown UK talent was than anything else.

This is the first time since the creation of the Bank of England back in 1694 that it has been governed by a non British subject, in this case a Canadian. But Mr. comes highly qualified for the job.

He has managed arguably the best economy in the world Canada which has not had one bank bailout. In fact he has come through with his reputation enhanced. He understands Capital Markets. He worked for Goldman Sachs for 13 years (possibly not such a good thing! Could this be a case of Goldman getting “their man” into the BoE, and a “printer” into the system?). He speaks fluent French, went to Oxford University, already lived in the UK for a decade, his wife and children are British subjects, and he will apply for British citizenship.

Mr. Carney is also the current chairman of the board of the Financial Stability Board (FSB) which in itself is a considerable achievement and vote of confidence as this organization includes all G20 nations

This is a slap in the face for Mr. Paul Tucker who was touted as the next Governor . Too bad, LIBOR scandal for sure screwed that one up, and his dealings with Mr Bob Diamond.

In another departure from the norm he will only serve a 5 year term instead of the more usual 8 year, and Charlie Bean will stay on serving his current term.

Big Question: How will this effect the UK money printing practices and will we see more Quantitative Easing with Mr. Carney at the helm?

© Copyright MMXII RagingGoldenBull.com

CFTC Whistle-Blower Web Site Post Deleted

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The CFTC Whistle-blower Article from the last post has now been pulled from the website:

 

What happened to this post - hoax or cover-up?

CFTC Whistle Blower Post Disappears

http://comments.cftc.gov/PublicComments/ViewComment.aspx?id=57019&SearchText

But not before I got a copy to post here for eternity. Maybe it was a hoax, but most probably not. I find it always handy to keep a copy of stuff for reference purposes.

Weird.

© Copyright MMXII RagingGoldenBull.com

So They Really Do Manipulate The Price Of Gold and Silver …

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RagingGoldenBull-Gold01

RagingGoldenBull-Gold01

The situation really is getting really, really, really weird. And then some.

If I did not know better I would say somethings gonna blow. After the now infamous letter from Greg Smith entitled “Why I Am Leaving Goldman Sachs” to the New York Times, another open letter has been posted around same time, this time to the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission), but this time from JP Morgan Chase. Here’s a taster:

“I believe I have worked here long enough to understand the trajectory of its culture, its people and its identity. And I can honestly say that the environment now is as toxic and destructive as I have ever seen it.”

If this is true – the implications are scary (and someone is going to be fired in the morning…”I don’t care…Just fire someone!”)

Of most interest to us Gold/Silver Bulls is that there is direct mention of contrived manipulation and even co-coordinated efforts from the Big 5 Investment Banks to actually drive down the price of gold and silver. The Bernanke (“Bilderberg” Ben as he is now known) incident (testamony – Feb 29 – leap year day) where Gold dropped 100 USD in a day (yes I was trading at the time and watched the vertical drop yellow line with a sickening stomach sourced, nauseating swelling and spinning sensation rising up through my body – getting giddy and heady – as only a trader could know – especially as I had just put in two large buys minutes before …Buggerus Maximus!) is explicitly mentioned which is a good thing:

“January is right around the time we started increasing our short positions quite significantly again and this most recent crash in gold and silver during Bernanke’s speech on February 29th is of notable importance, as we along with 4 other major institutions, orchestrated the violent $100 drop in Gold and subsequent drops in silver.”

I do lots of trades and every now and then you wonder “Is it me?… Or maybe I just can’t cut the mustard to trade anymore.” and then “Maybe I should just apply for that part-time job I saw in the window of the florists”. Then you find out someone is manipulating the bloody market. The game is rigged. Well ultimately they won’t win THIS game with gold – that is why I am playing this game.

Seriously, for years I read, and heard about the manipulation of the Gold markets, prices being controlled and my attitudes was that it can’t be true. As I get older I have to admit that that was naive to say the least.

If this letter (see below) is a hoax at least it will make people think. If it is true, maybe we could see a turn around in Wall Street mentality of staff who are actually as sickened (maybe even more – I know how it is to work in a hell-hole corporation) as we are! Maybe we will have a stream of whistle blowers come out of the woodwork…Weird, weird times my friend.

Here is the full open letter:

From: Z A N
Organization(s):
JPMorgan Chase

Comment No: 57019
Date: 3/14/2012

Comment Text:

Dear CFTC Staff,

Hello, I am a current JPMorgan Chase employee. This is an open letter to all commissioners and regulators. I am emailing you today b/c I know of insider information that will be damning at best for JPMorgan Chase. I have decided to play the role of whistleblower b/c I no longer have faith and belief that what we are doing for society is bringing value to people. I am now under the opinion that we are actually putting hard working Americans unaware of what lays ahead at extreme market risk. This risk is unnecessary and will lead to wide-scale market collapse if not handled properly. With the release of Mr. Smith’s open letter to Goldman, I too would like to set the record straight for JPM as well. I have seen the disruptive behavior of superiors and no longer can say that I look up to employees at the ED/MD level here at JPM. Their smug exuberance and arrogance permeates the air just as pungently as rotting vegetables. They all know too well of the backdoor crony connections they share intimately with elected officials and with other institutions. It is apparent in everything they do, from the meager attempts to manipulate LIBOR, therefore controlling how almost all derivatives are priced to the inherit and fraudulent commodities manipulation. They too may have one day stood for something in the past in the client-employee relationship. Does anyone in today’s market really care about the protection of their client? From the ruthless and scandalous treatment of MF Global client asset funds to the excessive bonuses paid by companies with burgeoning liabilities. Yes, we at JPMorgan that are in the know are fearful of a cascading credit event being triggered in Greece as they have hidden derivatives in excess of $1 Trillion USD. We at JPMorgan own enough of these through counterparty risk and outright prop trading that our entire IB EDG space could be annihilated within a few short days. The last ten years has been market by inflexion point after inflexion point with the most notable coming in 2008 after the acquisition of Bear.

I wish to remain anonymous as of now as fear of termination mounts from what I am about to reveal. Robert Gottlieb is not my real name; however he is a trader that is involved in a lawsuit for manipulative trading while working with JPMorgan Chase. He was acquired during our Bear Stearns acquisition and is known to be the notorious person shorting in the silver future market from his trading space, along with Blythe Masters, his IB Global boss. However, with that said, we are manipulating the silver futures market and playing a smaller (but still massively manipulative) role in manipulating the gold futures market. We have a little over a 25% (give or take a percentage) position in the short market for silver futures and by your definition this denotes a larger position than for speculative purposes or for hedging and is beyond the line of manipulation.

On a side note, I do not work directly with accounts that would have been directly impacted by the MF Global fiasco but I have heard through other colleagues that we have involvement in the hiding of client assets from MF Global. This is another fraudulent effort on our part and constitutes theft. I urge you to forward that part of the investigation on to the respective authorities.

There is something else that you may find strange. During month-end December, we were all told by our managers that this was going to be a dismal year in terms of earnings and that we should not expect any bonuses or pay raises. Then come mid-late January it is made known that everyone received a pay raise and/or bonus, which is interesting b/c just a few weeks ago we were told that this was not likely and expected to be paid nothing in addition to base salary. January is right around the time we started increasing our short positions quite significantly again and this most recent crash in gold and silver during Bernanke’s speech on February 29th is of notable importance, as we along with 4 other major institutions, orchestrated the violent $100 drop in Gold and subsequent drops in silver.

As regulators of the free people of this country, I ask you to uphold the most important job in the world right now. That job is judge and overseer of all that is justice in the most sensitive of commodity markets. There are many middle-income people that invest in the physical assets of silver, gold, as well as mining stocks that are being financially impacted in a negative way b/c of our unscrupulous shorts in the precious metals commodity sector. If you read the COT with intent you will find that commercials (even though we have no business being in the commercial sector, which should be reserved for companies that truly produce the metal) are net short by a long shot in not only silver, but gold.

It is rather surprising that what should be well known liabilities on our balance sheet have not erupted into wider scale scrutinization. I call all honest and courageous JPMorgan employees to step up and fight the cronyism and wide-scale manipulation by reporting the truth. We are only helping reality come to light therefore allowing a real valuation of our banking industry which will give investors a chance to properly adjust without being totally wiped out. I will be contacting a lawyer shortly about this matter, as I believe no other whistleblower at JPMorgan has come forward yet. Our deepest secrets lie within the hands of honest employees and can be revealed through honest regulators that are willing to take a look inside one of America’s best kept secrets. Please do not allow this to turn into another Enron.

Kind Regards,
-The 1st Whistleblower of Many

I eagerly await the development of this story with bated breath.

P.S. Gold is still floundering around 1,650 USD/Oz, dazed and confused (but not for long!).

© Copyright MMXII RagingGoldenBull.com

Billionaire Saudi Finds 113 Tons Of Gold In Ethiopian Sands

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Saudi billionaire Mohammed al-Amoudi and regular all round geezer has just found even more gold. In fact 113 Tonnes of it. Could be one for the portfolio in the Gold-Bull run-up, but 24 months sounds very optimistic, but let’s see. Check back here in 24 months. OK?

Here is the Bloomberg report:

National Mining Corp., a closely held company owned by Saudi billionaire Mohammed al-Amoudi, said it found gold deposits in southern Ethiopia that may produce at least 10 metric tons a year, almost doubling national output.

Exploration conducted over 15 years shows the Okote site in Ethiopia’s Oromia region has more than 550 tons of gold, of which 73 tons may be ready for extraction within 24 months, Chief Executive Officer Melaku Beza in an interview on March 12 in Addis Ababa, the capital. The company plans to invest $150 million in the initial phase of production, he said.

“This area has huge potential,” he said. “The revenue will be about $4 billion in 20 years’ time” from the 73 tons and the government will receive $1 billion from tax and royalty payments over that period.

Ethiopia, the world’s third-biggest coffee grower, is diversifying its economy to reduce its reliance on agriculture, which accounts for 43 percent of the gross domestic product, according to African Development Bank data. Gold exports surged 75 percent to 11 tons in the fiscal year through July 7, 2011, generating $485.3 million. Earnings totalled $258.8 million in the first half of the current fiscal year from $179.2 million a year earlier, according to Trade Ministry data.

“I think mining development in Ethiopia will be the future hope of the country for foreign-currency income,” Melaku said. Last year, coffee shipments earned the country about one-third of its total foreign-exchange revenue of $2.8 billion.

Gold Survey

Surveys conducted by South Africa’s Venmyn Rand Ltd. have shown deposits of 113 tons of gold in the southern part of Okote, which is about 600 kilometers (373 miles) south of Addis Ababa, Melaku said. The area may contain more than 425 tons, Melaku said.

Ethiopia’s only commercial producer of the precious metal is Midroc Gold, another company owned by al-Amoudi that was formed out of NMC to develop the Legedembi deposit. That mine, which is about 100 kilometers north of Okote, produces about 4 tons of gold a year, said Melaku.

At peak production, Okote may employ 5,000 workers and earn the company more than $500 million a year from 10 tons of the metal, he said.

NMC, which is based in the capital, was formed in 1993 when al-Amoudi bought the state-owned Ethio-Libyan Joint Mining Co. The sale was the first of a state-owned company to private investors by Prime Minister Meles Zenawi’s two-decade old government, according to Melaku.

The state owns 5 percent of all gold operations, levies an income tax of 35 percent and collects royalties of 8 percent, according to Melaku. Australia’s Nyota Minerals Ltd. (NYO) and Vancouver-based Tigray Resources Inc. (TIG) both have discovered gold deposits in the Horn of Africa nation. NMC also has found 18 tons of gold in the northern Tigray region, said Melaku.

Ethiopian-born Al-Amoudi is the world’s 61st richest man and is worth $12.5 billion, according to Forbes magazine. His Ethiopian investments include cement, hotel, soft drink and agriculture companies.

See the full story at : http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-15/saudi-billionaire-s-gold-find-may-double-ethiopian-production.html

© Copyright MMXII RagingGoldenBull.com